This predictive model of the Steelers’ intention aligns with my finalized Top 100 board, offensive value board, and defensive value board. The value boards have been updated for the final time, but I could have a few minor shifts in and out of the Top 100 board leading up to a final posting deadline on Tuesday evening.
This year’s early rounds should feature an offensive flavor, not just for the Steelers, but for much of the league. My draftboards skew as strongly toward offense as they ever have. When considering depth, this is an extremely strong draft for both interior offensive line and tackle. The wide receivers extend deep, as they have in recent years, but the running back and tight end positions tend to be a bit top-heavy, with significant fall-off after the first few prospects.
Because of these projections, I say there’s a mandate for the Steelers to draft a marquee running back right off the bat. While it’s unlikely the team can afford to mortgage draft capital and move up, I would find it equally difficult to understand any move down, which could cause them to miss out on a top running back. I’m terming that thought process “The big wish” henceforth, because one cannot assume that the guy you hope is there later is, well, there. It’s too wishful of thinking for a team that just must draft a strong backfield prospect.
One final thought before we begin: I feel like there are a half dozen nickel/slot-type options for the Steelers to look at in the territory of Rounds Two through Four. Because these lengthy, yet physical players exist in a bit of a cluster, I expect the one defensive position to gain attention some time on Day Two will be slot/nickel cornerback. I hedge toward betting they will wait out the defensive backs and see what drops into the No. 87 spot.
DAZZLING DOZEN PROSPECTS
Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson (5-10, 215, 4.44, Senior, ranked #26 on my draftboard) – In the fashion of Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, the Steelers could finally garner attention to the fantasy football community with their own explosive lightning rod if they are able to select Etienne. With blue chip traits in agility, speed, start/stop acceleration, and leg strength, it has been presumed by this column from the start that Etienne would be the preferred running back choice in this top-heavy group. Though I do very much like Najee Harris, I feel the overall grand slam pick for the Steelers this draft is fixing the offense with the future fantasy stud, ol’ electric-feet Etienne. The offensive linemen are deep in this draft class, and in various upcoming rounds opportunity will present itself to add future starters to a somewhat mundane group.
But back to Etienne: He is a transformational prospect who can transition well to a zone-oriented scheme with modern pre-snap movement and play design. These are features we should expect from the Matt Canada offensive scheme, and the explosive nature to which Etienne plays football will fit nicely. It's time to solve this quandary at running back, and next year at this time I finally expect to not be begging for the position to be addressed. Give me Etienne, sprinkle in some thunder to his lightning with newcomer Kalen Ballage, and let the rest of the crew – Anthony McFarland, Benny Snell, and Jaylen Samuels – battle it out for a roster spot.
Focusing on Day Two selections, No. 55 and 87:
James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati (6-5, 313, 5.29, R-Junior, ranked #49) – The second phase of my exploration of names for this list brought out Hudson as the apple of my eye. That hasn’t changed. Here’s what I know: The upside potential for Hudson appears to be enormous, as he’s a head-hunting, aggressive blocker who plays with the demeanor he learned when he was a defensive lineman at Michigan. His natural balance and quick feet at left tackle are extremely appealing. He uses his massive hands, which are largest (10 ¾) among all tackles, to manhandle the opponent. He also allowed zero sacks or hits on the quarterback during the 11 games he was a Bearcat and played left tackle.
However, what I don’t know is what this guy is like as a person. He had a dust-up at Michigan, transferred to Cincinnati, and there was a lot of bickering about that move. Was this due to Jim Harbaugh being Jim Harbaugh? Or is Hudson a tough case psychologically and somebody who wouldn’t have impressed the Steelers during the pre-draft process? I’m willing to say Harbaugh is the bigger issue here, so let’s give Hudson a shot at being on the Steelers’ board. Outside of the first-round blue-chippers, he is my favorite tackle prospect and one who could add significant athleticism to a unit that needs it. Hudson is a native of Toledo, Ohio, and will turn 22 in May.
Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan (6-5, 326, 5.38, R-Sophomore, ranked #50) – Mayfield is another lineman with a May birthday, but he will be turning just 21. I like the potential match of Mayfield to the Steelers. He’s a youngster who might not have played his best football yet, while showing proficiency at right tackle in a major college program. He strikes with explosive blocks and shows great technical use with proper angles in the running game. While many draft pundits have been concerned about arm length (32 ¾) and placed Mayfield as a guard, I have held on to his tackle projection based on what he is able to do on the field. His production, passion, punch, and consistency as a right tackle at Michigan, going against elite edge prospects, speaks well to what I think the Steelers could see in him. If he’s ready to play earlier than expected, there’s no saying he can’t occupy the right side while Chuks Okorafor and Zach Banner battle for the left side. Competition is our friend. Our nemesis, however, could be injuries to the offensive tackles this coming year. As currently constructed, this team is not ready to react to a major injury at tackle. Mayfield would both fortify the unit and also supply a very young foundational prospect with a mean streak. Though I prefer Hudson, Mayfield would be a suitable choice, alligator arms or not.
Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF (5-11 ½, 186, 4.38, R-Senior, ranked #58) – Most of Robinson’s snaps at UCF involved lining up against the slot receiver. This is an area the Steelers should be mining heavily in Day Two or early Day Three. There’s a cluster, and among the group Robinson stands out as ready for action and proficient with nickel/slot responsibility. With timed speed of 4.38 and highly athletic traits overall, it was easy to include Robinson as a prospect to look at in the second round, with potential hopes that his draft value could drag out to the third-round selection. My take is that he is a highly athletic, scrappy defender who has potential to grow in key areas where the Steelers need to replace the free agency loss of Mike Hilton, and also Cam Sutton, who should plan on full-time work outside. Robinson is 23 ½ years old and a cousin of former Jacksonville cornerback Denard Robinson.
Jamar Johnson, SAF/Slot, Indiana (6-0, 205, 4.58, Junior, ranked #65) – A prospect possibly having more overall awareness than Robinson is Johnson of the Hoosiers. He was among the first names that surfaced in the discussion a few weeks ago after catching my attention as a breakout prospect in Indiana’s special 2020 season. I like the natural fluidity with which Johnson moves around the defensive backfield. As a junior, he found playing time and latched on to the “Husky” position of the Hoosier defense, which requires free safety positioning in base defense and dropping down into the slot corner in sub-packages. He went on to pick off four passes in a shortened season (8 games) and show natural coverage and pass-deflection skills. Though he would likely be termed a “safety” on the television screen when selected, be aware that if the Steelers were to choose him it would be for nickel and dime package slot coverage. Meet your new Mike Hilton.
Kendrick Green, C/G, Illinois (6-2, 305, 4.88, R-Junior, ranked #68) – Here’s a guy who showed up on the first list of nominations for this exercise. I really like Green’s projection to starting NFL center. Before I had really put together the idea of him as a center, I had Green outside of the top 100 as a guard who seemed a bit undersized with short arms. But then, I saw him snap the ball. He generally was a guard at Illinois, but oh, my, what a disservice they did to his career trajectory with that move. Something about the way Green snaps and has his hands up blocking simultaneously really engages my curiosity. I’m serious, this guy's early movement and speed at the snap is impressive! “Can this be the next great one for the Steelers?” Probably a more appropriate suggestion involves whether or not Green can come in, grab a roster spot, and by midseason beat out B.J. Finney for a job. It's unreasonable to assume he'll fall in line of the Steelers' impressive tradition at the position, but Green has me intrigued by his ability to get to the second-level, as well as his fluid movement assignment after assignment. There’s a nasty streak with this guy and one can easily see his wrestling background come out in game footage. With a very high ceiling, I’d suggest the Steelers select Green, who might be their starting center the next 10 years.
Focusing on fourth round, No. 128 and 140:
Chris Rumph, OLB, Duke (6-3, 244, no official 40, R-Junior, ranked #89) – Rumph was a nomination I made two weeks ago in Draft Talk. His frame and athletic traits make me believe he is a candidate for the Steelers’ defensive scheme. With 17.5 career sacks and 34 tackles-for-loss, the production is there in a competitive ACC Conference. Rumph would fit into the linebacker room without disrupting the starting trajectory that Alex Highsmith is on. Rumph can compete and push, but probably wouldn't be a threat to start. Chris is 22 years old, was a team captain at Duke, and as was discussed previously has wonderful technique due to his father being a long-time coach and someone with significant NFL pedigree. Now, I’m not certain the Steelers will dip into the linebacker position at an early point, but there’s also nothing saying linebacker depth won’t trump a defensive back selection. Rumph is one of the players with a thick enough frame to set the edge while also serving most of his time in an upright, traditional outside linebacker stance.
Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan (6-0, 191, 4.40, Senior, ranked #98) – The ideal role for Thomas in the NFL will be to start as a slot corner, though he does have traits that make me believe he could transition to the outside, where he also has experience as a Wolverine. Thomas is fundamentally sound in all aspects of playing his position and certainly should be in consideration by the Steelers for their selection as early as No. 87 overall. He has experience as a special teams gunner and kick returner, while also making 54 tackles, 3.5 TFL, and four interceptions in three seasons. Of those three seasons, Thomas was only a starter during the 13 games of his junior year. To illustrate past gravitas, Thomas was the No. 2 player being recruited out of Michigan for the 2017 class and had offers from Penn State, Pitt, Michigan, Florida, and Michigan State. I believe he’s flying well below the radar and is a likely Steelers’ type candidate.
Drew Dalman, C, Stanford (6-3, 295, 5.00, R-Junior, ranked #109) – Dalman is a new entry to this dazzling list of prospects. He was a team captain for Stanford as a redshirt junior and has NFL pedigree by way of his father, Chris, who played in the league and then had various coaching stops. Due to the nature of his upbringing, one can notice the technical game that Dalman portrays. He is a big, thick center with strength (33 reps on bench) and the ability to consistently make good blocks. Is he athletic enough to become a long-time centerpiece of the line? I’m unsure, and maybe even leery of the athletic traits. But, while concerns about his overall athleticism keep Dalman slightly off the Top 100 for now, let’s recognize him as someone who could help fill a need if earlier targets don’t work out. At the very least this makes a good story when his eventual partner to the right, David DeCastro, serves as mentor to the young Stanford protégé.
Tre' McKitty, TE, Georgia (6-4, 246, no official 40, Senior, ranked #121) – While it seems likely the Steelers could pursue a free agent tight end after the draft, I couldn’t help but submit McKitty to the dazzling list. I feel he’s been left out of important discussions at the tight end position. There’s great athletic traits that come with McKitty, including seam-busting speed, big strong hands (10 ¾) and the build that makes him “look like a tight end.” He is 22 years old and graduated with a degree in criminology from Florida State in 2019 before entering the transfer portal and attending Georgia. COVID-19 and the shortened season have thrown a curveball to the assessment of what he could do in a title contending program, but based on his frame and overall athleticism, it’s my belief that a team taking Tre’ in the fourth round will end up with a bargain. With only three touchdowns in his career, there aren’t many highlight clips, but I have enjoyed viewing his game footage from Florida State, where some of these traits were noticeable.
Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State (5-10, 206, 4.56, Junior, ranked #126) – If the Steelers are drafting players and not positions, it could be that they follow the draftboard early and that it points to positions outside of running back. Not my choice, no, but we must try to keep this dazzling list honest and of the best focus possible. Jefferson offers some great traits and could be a later option. While his 4.56 40 is not eye-popping, he's a player with great vision and quick feet. He’s not a powerful runner, so he isn’t going to suddenly add that dynamic to the roster, but what Jermar does have is more cutting and vision ability than the roster appears to currently have. Jermar just turned 21 and demonstrated production at Oregon State with 2,923 yards on 514 carries, an average of 5.7 yards per carry. He was a consistent producer, and although I’m not in favor of these fallback options (give me a Round One RB, Puhhh-leeeeze!), I would nab Jefferson as my favorite option in Round Four.
Daelin Hayes, OLB, Notre Dame (6-3 ½, 253, 4.73, R-Senior, ranked #140) – Hayes, a captain for the Fighting Irish, is a stand-up outside linebacker prospect who was used in a rotation with several edge-rushers. I noticed on film review that it was common for the Irish to rotate tandems at edge positions in an apparent attempt to keep fresh bodies battling against offensive linemen. Although his production numbers have been low, he shows numerous traits that have kept him on my radar for this list. He’s not elite and wouldn’t stand a chance to be land within the Top 100, but he's a solid mid-round prospect with the ability to continue his growth as a player in the NFL. Although there is a history of shoulder injuries, Hayes was able to compete throughout the 2020 season without issue. In fact, he played a very physical brand of football that often involved him leaning into his pursuit with those shoulders. With an athletic, thick frame that stacks up very nicely on his physique, I consider Hayes to be a hot prospect for that selection near the end of Round Four.
Note: I have removed previously nominated names that surfaced over the past few Draft Talk pieces due to the nature of the offseason. Falling out of consideration are ILB/OLB Derrick Barnes, Purdue; ILB Cameron McGrone, Michigan; and WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn. I don't feel those positions will be worthy of serious consideration for early and mid-round selections. Previously, I had removed RB Harris as well, citing my belief that there is no way the league is going to let Harris slide right down to the Steelers' selection at No. 24 without someone trading ahead of them for the steal. Regardless, I suspect Harris to be taken earlier than mock drafts might project.
A mini-mock wrap
Round One, No. 24: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Round Two, No. 55: James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati
Round Three, No. 87: Kendrick Green, C, Illinois
Round Four, No. 128: Ambry Thomas, CB, Michigan
Round Four, No. 140: Tre’ McKitty, TE, Georgia
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Doug Martz's Draft Talk capstone: The Steelers' Dazzling Dozen - 247Sports
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