By now, the Super Bowl contenders are well aware of their standing among the NFL’s hierarchy, while the postseason afterthoughts are assessing their offseason roadmaps.
More often than not, roster building starts with a quarterback evaluation. And these teams need to be overly honest with themselves because a couple of potential superstars may await in the NFL Draft. The first two picks are as valuable as ever with USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye expected to declare.
There aren’t enough franchise quarterbacks for everybody, though. Teams without a shot at that star duo will need to get more creative to fill their needs through the veteran or draft route.
Let’s lay the groundwork for the league’s annual QB carousel. We’ll start by categorizing each team’s in-house option before addressing ways for those in rebuilding modes to start over. We’ll knock out the easy ones first before diving into the more complicated situations.
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Franchise quarterbacks on veteran contracts
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Jackson used a unique strategy to press his leverage in contract negotiations and ultimately won out in April with a five-year, $260 million extension. The 26-year-old is in the mix for his second MVP award this season.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Allen signed a six-year, $258 million extension in 2021. Though the deal runs through 2028, the 27-year-old might be in line for a restructure in the not-so-distant future because he’s been leapfrogged by many of the more recent contracts.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Burrow signed a historic five-year, $275 million contract in September. Over the summer, coaches and executives polled by The Athletic tabbed Burrow as the second-best quarterback in the league. He won’t get a full shot to validate that notion this season now that he’s out with a wrist injury, but the 26-year-old will get a full reset to recover from a frustrating run of injuries in time for 2024. One would think the Bengals will take a more aggressive approach to find his backup in the draft.
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Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
The 30-year-old has one year left on his contract, but his cap hit balloons to $59.5 million in 2024, which has caused the Cowboys to attempt to negotiate an extension. Prescott has the leverage, so it’s fair to wonder how the team would proceed if there’s an impasse in negotiations. If they can’t afford to carry Prescott at that cap hit, the Cowboys could have a difficult decision to make. For his part, owner Jerry Jones has maintained his stance the Cowboys would get a deal done.
Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson
Wilson’s five-year, $242.5 million contract looked like a massive issue throughout 2022, and that may still be the case, which would place him in the category below. However, the 34-year-old is playing better this season under coach Sean Payton, so Wilson remains in the top category for now. That could change with a regression in performance because Wilson is essentially financially tied to the Broncos through 2025.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes restructured his contract in September and is essentially locked in for $210.6 million through 2026. The 28-year-old is a two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time MVP, so Mahomes doesn’t just set the market — he is the market.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Like a few others in this tier, Herbert reset the market this summer with a five-year, $262.5 million contract. The 25-year-old is still seeking his first playoff win, but rival coaches and executives who gush over Herbert’s talent believe more significant accolades are on the horizon.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers, who turns 40 in December, is set to earn another $38 million in 2024, and he’s tied to the Jets through 2025 if he wants to play that long. The Jets will continue chasing a Super Bowl with the marquee trade acquisition who tore his Achilles during the first series of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Hurts signed a five-year, $255 million deal in April. Still only 25, he has been the centerpiece of the Eagles’ offensive revolution and is in the MVP conversation this season.
#nfl QB Betrayal Index makes in-season appearance & Justin Herbert has company @TheAthletic https://t.co/dusl4hmJ8R
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) November 30, 2023
Teams financially tied to veteran QBs
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
Even as Watson battled injuries this season, he was showing signs of regaining traction as a franchise quarterback, and he was initially listed in the tier above. That changed when the Browns and Watson determined he needed season-ending shoulder surgery. Maybe the 28-year-old improves next season and alleviates the Browns’ concerns. But at the moment, they’ve paid him $91 million for 12 starts through two seasons, not to mention the cache of draft picks sent over in the trade with the Texans. Watson has three years remaining on his fully guaranteed $230 million contract, and the Browns may need to consider adding future years or void years to mitigate the remaining cap hits.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
A perceived throw-in piece of the Matthew Stafford trade, Goff has revived his career in a major way with the Lions. The 29-year-old’s contract runs through 2024, when he has a $31.65 million cap hit, so there may be some organizational urgency to reach an extension. However, Goff’s avalanche of turnovers over the last two games is becoming a concern. If he curbs that trend, the Lions will be fine. If not, they may pause the idea of an extension.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
Love has played some of his best football lately, and the Packers have greatly improved as a result. If this stretch is a sign of things to come, the Packers will have their franchise QB. The 2020 first-rounder is tied to the Packers through 2024. By that point, they’ll have Aaron Rodgers’ dead money off the books and a clearer picture of their future plan at quarterback, as well as with the rest of the roster.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
Stafford, who turns 36 in February, was a critical component to the Rams’ Super Bowl victory. He then signed a four-year, $160 million contract in 2022 and is on the books for $31 million guaranteed in 2024, and $10 million of his 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed March 17. The contract is perfectly manageable if Stafford stays healthy, but that has become more of a concern of late, which is why he’s in this category.
New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr
Carr is due $30 million in guaranteed salary in 2024, and he’ll likely collect a total of $100 million from the Saints from 2023-25. The 32 year old has just been OK for the Saints’ inconsistent offense, but he’s been dealing with injuries. The Saints, who are seemingly always in win-now mode, have to consider pursuing a long-term answer in the draft.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
The 26-year-old tore his ACL midway through the first season of his four-year, $160 million contract. He’s on the books in 2024 for a fully guaranteed $35.5 million, which may lead to an interesting dynamic if the 4-8 Giants end up with a pick near the top of the draft.
Franchise quarterbacks on rookie contracts
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
The No. 1 pick hasn’t played to his standard, though the Panthers haven’t given him much help. Still, the Panthers traded a haul of assets to draft Young, so they’ll give him time and – eventually – the resources to find his way. It’s going to be difficult for Young to take off without any consistency on the coaching staff, so it’s on owner David Tepper to find an added dose of patience with the next group.
Addressing the topics Panthers owner Dave Tepper didn’t, incl.:
• Future of Scott Fitterer, who was noticeable by his absence Tues.
• Why the plug was pulled on Frank Reich after 11 games.
• Will anyone want to work for Tepper?
Happy Hump Day. https://t.co/Whs9ZYbE9h— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 29, 2023
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud
The No. 2 pick is having one of the greatest rookie seasons by any QB in history, and it’s not too early to believe Stroud can be the face of the franchise for at least another decade.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
The No. 4 pick looked the part in limited action before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, so the Colts have to be pleased with their selection. But they also can’t be naïve to the injury concern, as Richardson departed three of his four starts before being placed on IR. All parties involved need to spend the offseason finding a way to limit the damage from hits.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
The 2021 No. 1 pick is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, and the Jaguars intend to be aggressive in securing Lawrence for the foreseeable future. Once he got Urban Meyer out of his system, Lawrence began to validate his long-running standing as a likely franchise QB. It shouldn’t be long before Lawrence solidifies himself among the league’s best.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
The fifth pick of the 2020 draft has continued his career breakout this season with coach Mike McDaniel’s offense. Tagovailoa has also remained healthy, which was the concern following his concussion-shortened 2022 campaign. The 25-year-old will play on his fifth-year option in 2024 if he doesn’t agree on a contract extension.
San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
An accidental rookie starter thanks to injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, the last pick of the 2022 draft showed a quick proficiency to operate Kyle Shanahan’s offense and has mostly sustained that momentum in 2023. There are lingering concerns about whether Purdy can go throw for throw with top-tier quarterbacks in a tight game, but the organization has to be happy with Purdy’s development in a short amount of time.
Ongoing evaluation
Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke
The Falcons desperately want Ridder to be the guy. They were high on the 24-year-old before selecting him in the third round in 2022 and stuck with him longer than expected this season despite the offense’s struggles. Heinicke has been a mildly successful fringe starter throughout his career but has never worked his way into the long-term conversation. Depending on how this plays out down the stretch, the Falcons will either stick with Ridder in 2024 or more aggressively pursue an upgrade.
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Chicago Bears: Justin Fields
The 2021 No. 11 pick has flashed, albeit inconsistently, in three seasons. Then again, the Bears haven’t surrounded him with much support. They may not be able to pass up Williams or Maye in the draft if they get a top-two pick (from Carolina), and that could push Fields to the trade block.
In his first mock draft, @dpbrugler has the Bears taking Caleb Williams at No. 1.
Should the Bears do that? @kfishbain and I debate it here. I think I've entered the "Stick with Justin Fields and draft the star WR" camp.
Our analysis. Click the pic!https://t.co/KnzAOjSqOE
— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) November 29, 2023
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett
The 20th pick in 2022 has been OK, but the Steelers’ entire offensive operation has been questionable in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. The Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada due to a lack of production, so the next OC must find a way to untap Pickett’s potential.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
The 33-year-old’s revival with the Seahawks has been an incredible story, but his numbers have dipped across the board this season. Smith signed a three-year, $75 million contract last offseason, but the Seahawks can get out of it in 2024 if necessary. It’s more than plausible the Seahawks draft a quarterback in April and create an offseason competition with Smith.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
The 2018 No. 1 pick is having his best season in three years, and the stability within coordinator Dave Canales’ offense is a big factor. Mayfield is on a one-year deal, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he stays in Tampa beyond this season to compete to keep his job, so long as the coaching staff remains. The Bucs will probably be factors in the draft with a deep pool of QBs.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis
The second-round pick has been tabbed as the Titans’ starter the rest of the way, leapfrogging 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis in the wake of veteran Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury. Tannehill, 35, will be a free agent, and the Titans appear set on staying young at the position. Levis’ performance the rest of the season will determine the Titans’ aggressiveness at QB with the upcoming draft class.
Washington Commanders: Sam Howell
The Commanders have said Howell is their guy for the foreseeable future. And with the way the 2022 fifth-rounder has played in his first season as the starter, it’s not hard to understand why they want to see this through. Howell, the league’s leading passer through Week 12, has a big arm and enough athleticism to produce in Eric Bieniemy’s offense. It’s unclear if the Commanders’ new ownership group has offseason changes in store, but Howell looks like the guy for the time being.
Likely heading into a transition
Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo signed a three-year, $72.75 million contract last offseason, but the Raiders benched him for O’Connell during their midseason wipeout of all things former Patriots. Unless the next regime prefers Garoppolo, the Raiders may be moving toward a release, which would cost them $28 million in dead cap space. O’Connell, the fourth-round rookie, has a couple of months to audition for a future role.
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New England Patriots: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
Jones would almost certainly benefit from a change in scenery after a rocky couple of seasons in Foxboro. The No. 15 pick of the 2021 draft has been benched four more times this season, and the expectation is Bailey Zappe will start Sunday against the Chargers. It’s a near certainty the Patriots will look for another QB this offseason.
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Too early to call
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs
Cousins, 35, tore his Achilles this season, which is even more frustrating with free agency on the horizon. Cousins and the Vikings have been a good match, especially since coach Kevin O’Connell arrived in 2022, so it’d make sense to continue their partnership. Plus, other QB-needy teams may be wary to sign Cousins after a major injury that’ll likely knock him out of a good chunk of the offseason program. Dobbs, who has been one of the best stories in the league though he struggled Monday against Chicago, has likely played himself into a free-agent contract worthy of a fringe starter or priority backup. If Minnesota can hang onto a playoff spot, it may be ideal to run it back with both quarterbacks.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
If Murray plays well down the stretch, the Cardinals’ new regime can feel good about having a franchise quarterback on the books for another five years and $230 million. If he doesn’t meet that standard, or if the Cardinals decide to go the draft route, they’ve got to assess a wide range of options.
Veteran QB options
Unlike this time last year when teams daydreamed about the possibility of adding Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Lamar Jackson in the offseason, the veteran options are quite a bit murkier.
Cousins and Tannehill are set to be free agents. Garoppolo could get released and could be an option in New England if the Patriots keep the Bill Belichick regime intact but miss out on a top-two pick. Prescott is a long shot but not an idea worth dismissing until his new deal is completed. All four would make the most sense for teams that need a quick fix.
Mayfield’s best bet may be to stick with the Bucs, but they’ll probably explore other options, too. Would they be interested in Murray? What about Fields? Maybe Mac Jones or Tannehill? Regardless, they should take another swing in the draft.
The trade market could get interesting because the majority of the 2021 first-rounders could be available, including Fields, Jones, Zach Wilson and maybe even Trey Lance.
Dobbs has a great chance to keep padding his bank account if he plays well down the stretch for the Vikings. He’ll either become one of the highest-paid backups in the league, or he’ll get a chance to compete for a starting job in camp.
Several teams will make a quarterback change in the offseason. While they’d all prefer Williams or Maye, those on the outside of the top couple of picks will be taking a long, hard look at these veterans.
Some around the league believe Williams has some Mahomes to his game. Meanwhile, Maye supporters see him as a cross between Allen and Herbert. Lofty company.
It gets tricky from there, though. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Texas’ Quinn Ewers may enter the conversation as first-round picks, but they could also return to school to compete with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders as the potential top QB in 2025. Duke’s Riley Leonard (who is in the transfer portal and appears to be headed to Notre Dame) and Georgia’s Carson Beck are talented underclassmen who could also benefit from an extra year in college.
🚨Mock Draft 1.0
– Bears draft two cornerstone players
– Jayden Daniels 📈👀
– 20 yrs later, Cardinals get another Larry Fitz
– Record number of first-rounders at a certain position (not WR)https://t.co/ZkNm2Otsz1— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 29, 2023
LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix have a wide range of possibilities. Daniels may have the best chance to leap into the first round, but all could go to teams with the opportunity to push for the top job — unless they wind up behind a franchise QB, of course.
Scouting departments have just about enough tape on each of these prospects by now. The all-star circuit, combine and pro days will be incredibly interesting to determine where the next tier of quarterbacks will position themselves on draft boards.
(Top photos of Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray:
Quinn Harris, Todd Rosenberg and Norm Hall /Getty Images)
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